Continuing Conflicts That Create Refugees - May 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts: Sudan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine

Deteriorated Situations: Israel/Palestine, Sudan, Lebanon, Ecuador, Nagorno-Karabakh, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Indonesia, Thailand.

CrisisWatch identified deteriorations in nine countries in April

Israel-Palestine, Israeli security forces’ brutality at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan triggered a multi-front escalation, including the largest cross-border rocket barrage from Lebanon since the 2006 war.

Thailand’s deep south witnessed a surge in militant attacks, casting a shadow over dialogue between the government and the main separatist armed group.

Nigeria: Surges in criminal, herder-farmer and communal violence in Nigeria left hundreds of people dead across the country, with a particularly heavy toll among civilians.

Burkina Faso: Amid sustained fighting between government forces and jihadist groups in Burkina Faso since the government declared a “total war”, both sides conducted large-scale massacres of civilians.

Ecuador’s government declared terrorism a security threat amid a spike in gang violence, enabling the military to deploy in the streets to confront these groups without instituting a state of exception.

Sudan: Fighting erupted in Sudan between the army and a powerful paramilitary force, killing hundreds, triggering a humanitarian crisis and fuelling fears of a protracted, all-out civil war.

Azerbaijan installed a checkpoint along the Lachin corridor that connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, prompting Yerevan and Moscow to condemn Baku for breaching the 2020 ceasefire agreement and raising concern that heightened tensions could escalate further.

Ukraine: As expectations for Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive grew, Russian shelling killed and injured dozens; Moscow may deploy long-range weapons in the coming weeks, causing more civilian suffering.

Yemen, the first diplomatic visit by Saudi Arabia in eight years and a prisoner swap injected momentum into talks between Riyadh and Huthi rebels, raising hope for a more comprehensive halt to hostilities

Resolution Opportunities: Yemen

 Source: Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch